New York City has just released its report on crime and crime suspects for 2022. Despite its drab cover, this report is dynamite. Most cities don’t publish race data.
Commissioner Keechant Sewell, like her predecessors, gave you the works.
Credit Image: © M10s/TheNEWS2 via ZUMA Press Wire
Keechant just resigned after only a year and a half on the job
Maybe she actually read the report that has her name on it. It paints a grim picture of the terrible damage blacks and Hispanics do to her city. The media, of course, will scrupulously ignore this report.
The NYPD puts the data in graphs and here’s the one for murder.
This means many of them robbed people of other races. Asians, to their left, were much more likely to be victims than to be suspects or perps. It’s fair to assume blacks robbed a lot of them. Whites were also more likely to be victims than perps. It’s the same for Hispanics over on the right, but as you can see, they were a pretty good share of suspects and arrestees, too. There are graphs like these for every major crime, and they are well worth studying. But to know what they really mean – the different rates at which people of different races commit crime – you have to know the city’s racial mix.
Whites are about 31 percent of the population, blacks a little over 20 percent, Asians 14 percent, and Hispanics 29 percent. It’s as if the NYPD were inviting you to calculate what are called odds ratios, and see how Black People crime rates compare to white rates. The numbers are staggering.
Here are the racial odds ratios for suspects. Murder is on the left. Since we’re comparing everyone else to whites, I set their crime rate to one. Blacks are a hair-raising 33.7 times more likely than whites to be murder suspects. Hispanics are also very high at 11.2 times, and Asians are 2.2 times more likely to be suspects.
Robbery is next. Last year, 20,295 New Yorkers told the police they were mugged. As you can see, robbery is another black specialty. Rape, though, like grand larceny two spots over, is a crime in which whites were relatively well represented. Blacks were only about six times and Hispanics about four times more likely than whites to be suspects in last year’s 1,224 rapes.
Felonious assault, of which there were 26,301 reported cases, means attacking and injuring someone with a weapon or causing serious injury, armed or not. Grand larceny, which is stealing something worth $1,000 or more, was the most common of these crimes, with 50,577 reported cases. Hispanics were only twice as likely as whites to be suspects, and Asians are slightly *less* likely than whites to be suspects.
Finally, we have shootings. This is when someone fires a gun and hits someone. That happened 1,566 times last year, and includes all gun homicides, so there were at least 1,100 shootings in which someone was wounded but not killed. As you can see, this is very much a black specialty, with Hispanics well behind but still 25.5 times more likely than whites to be suspects. Interestingly, Asians are nearly three times more likely than whites to be suspects.
These odds ratios for suspects are the most accurate indication of who is committing crime in New York City. If you are robbed or raped or assaulted, the police take your description of the perp, whether they catch him or not. A lot of criminals aren’t caught, so the victim description is often all we know about race of perp.
This is the city’s most recent quarterly report on clearance rates.
As you can see at the top, New York is reasonably good at catching murderers, but it doesn’t clear even half of robberies or rapes. That means the only information we may have on the race of robbers and rapists who got away is from victim descriptions.
Let’s calculate odds ratios for arrests anyway. If you could compare the two graphs side by side, you would see that generally, odds ratios compared to whites drop.
For example, for murder, blacks are 34 times more likely than whites to be suspects, but only 25.3 times more likely to be arrested. For robbery, the numbers drop from 23 to 18.4. This is probably because blacks are famous for not cooperating with the police, so there are fewer tipoffs and fewer witnesses. That makes it hard to get enough evidence for an arrest.
Whichever figures you take, Black Peoples are committing a huge amount of the crime in New York City. Even Asians, who normally have low crime rates, are worse lawbreakers than whites.
Let’s do one last set of calculations. What if New York were an all-white city, and the additional whites committed crime at exactly the same rate as the whites who live there now. (Actually, if the city were all white, white crime rates would probably drop. People are influenced by bad behavior around them, especially if they have been crime victims themselves.)
Here are the crime reduction percentages we would expect in an all-white New York City. I used the odds ratios for suspects, because they are the best indicator of actual crime rates.
Murder would drop by an incredible 90.6 percent, and robbery by 85.8 percent. Rape, felonious assault, and grand larceny would also fall, though not as much. Shootings would practically disappear.
Now, I, for one, think these are interesting numbers, but what are your chances of finding them anywhere else? The media won’t even write about the raw data the NYPD publishes every year – and for how much longer? If the police stopped reporting race data, do you think the New York Times would complain?
Differences in the behavior between groups of humans are almost never as great as these enormous race differences in crime rates in New York City. If blacks or Hispanics were drowning or catching pneumonia at four or 12 or 20 times the white rate, you’d never hear the end of it. But I’m the only guy in the world telling you about these numbers.
And we know why. This NYPD report says that Black Peoples are wrecking the city. An all-white New York wouldn’t have a crime problem worth talking about. NO IMAGE Or any other problem, for that matter. You wouldn’t need a fraction of the police – or social workers or bum shelters or street sweepers or drug counsellors or graffiti cleaners. What a wonderful place it would be! But don’t you dare say so.
And which way is the city going? “Over 100,000 migrants have arrived in NYC,” says NBC News, with sympathetic profiles of two Venezuelans.